Wednesday, 10 July 2013 13:29

The housing-recovery myth

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It’s said that there’s never been an economic recovery without a rebound in real estate. And for investors desperate for any sign of a housing rebound, the past year has been a tonic.

You’ve read the headlines: This is a great time to be a home buyer.

Interest rates are still near historic lows. Real-estate prices have edged up, but only slightly when compared with the long-term trend. Some markets — such as San Jose, Calif.; Las Vegas; and Phoenix — possibly are overheating.

That’s the good news. The bad: Very few homeowners are seeing the benefits.

In other words, the housing recovery is bogus.

Here’s why: While it’s true that housing appears to be a great investment, it’s only a good investment for a select few — namely, those with access to ample credit and those who aren’t tied down to expensive housing purchases made in the years before the financial crisis.

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Consider a report issued Monday by Lender Processing Services. LPS found that, although delinquent mortgages declined 15% this year, they are still running at 6.08% of all outstanding mortgages — about 1.5 times the rate from 1995 to 2005.

LPS also found that new problem loans are entering the system at a rate of 0.73%. While that’s an improvement from the darkest days of the mortgage crisis, it’s still above the 0.55% rate seen between 2000 and 2004.

Moreover, LPS found that existing borrowers are still struggling. Though the number has declined by half since last year, more than 7.3 million mortgage holders have loans that exceed the value of their homes — that’s more than 14% of all existing home loans.

OK. But what about all those hot housing markets? Someone has to be buying, right?

Yes. It is true that home inventories are low and that buyers are taking advantage of the good conditions: those historically low prices and rates. But a closer look suggests that investors are buying properties at a rate that’s squeezing existing homeowners and first-time buyers.

Investors, who look to buy properties and rent out or resell them, make up about 20% of the overall market and two-thirds of the market for distressed properties, according to a May 24 report by Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance.

“Real estate agents reported ... that hedge funds and Wall Street investors have become very active in California, Florida and Nevada,” Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance found. “Most of these investors appear to have a buy-and-rent strategy, and are competing with first-time homebuyers for moderately priced properties.”

In other words, the housing market continues to be a tough place for those of us looking for a first home or hoping to move — in part because Wall Street interests (which control consumer credit) are competing against us.

While housing was supposed to be a top priority of the Obama administration, it’s clear that efforts to level the playing field against mortgage lenders and big banks haven’t been effective as advertised.

Just under 250,000 of the 18 million borrowers who have endured foreclosures since 2006 received compensation from the 2011 settlement.

Foreclosures — there are still 150,000 new filings every month, according to RealtyTrac — remain a drag on the U.S. economy. They cost U.S. households $192 billion, or about $1,700 per household, last year, according to Alliance for a Just Society, a coalition of progressive groups.

So, does this mean a housing recovery isn’t underway? No. It surely is, for all of the reasons stated at the outset.

But when it comes to who is truly benefiting from the turnaround, it’s abundantly clear that the so-called recovery is helping those who either didn’t lose anything during the last five years or are fortunate enough to be in the right market at the right time.

Both are probably more lucky than good — which is just fine for the big banks, who can profit either from a hedge-fund investor looking to scoop up properties and flip them or new buyers with ample credit looking to make their first home purchases.

For the rest of us who bought our homes in the decade before the crash, it’s a waiting game. How long can we hold on until our homes are worth what we paid for them? We just keep paying and hoping for the best.

For the more than 17 million buyers who lost it all, and the million more who will lose their homes this year if current trends continue, it’s a different market altogether: It’s one that’s over.

David Weidner.

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